Written by: Camille Wasson - Twitter @CamilleWasson
With the final regular season match up right around the corner, most fantasy owners have a clear idea of whether they’ve got a spot, or at least a chance at a spot, in the playoffs. This is when perspectives shift from long-term value to weekly match ups. Some of you have already been streaming at least one fantasy position. For me, that’s my defense. Just like any other position in your lineup, your defense has the ability to win you games- or lose them. Now is when I start going the extra mile with my research- and here are the steps I take to ensure I have the strongest lineup possible.
Double D’s - Add the Extra Defense now
Now is the time to roster multiple D/STs. This is the only time of year I consider it good fantasy advice to stack defenses. Start looking ahead at those week 14, 15 match ups- scoop up the defenses with the best match ups and put them on your bench now! Bet on yourself to make it that far, so that when you do, you’ve got the strongest team possible. Now obviously I wouldn’t prioritize a week 15 defense over a strong week 14 flex/WR1 option- you do have to make it to week 15 for that defense to matter. However, if you have the bench space (or can drop a backup QB/ RB option that hasn’t panned out), now is a great time to pick up defenses that have a tough matchup this week, but a great match up later (I’m looking at you, Atlanta).
Check those Injury Reports
Read all the way through them, don’t just skim for the big names. I know injury reports become big news because of offensive weapons, but start looking at the defensive players too. Go look at Green Bay’s report right now and tell me you don’t have any concerns with Bakhtiari returning today (as limited, too) - not to mention Breeland being a DNP and King being limited. Would I still start them this week against Arizona? Yes. Would I trust their later match ups? No. Second and third-string defensive players create weaknesses that offensive lines will exploit- especially those teams looking to clinch playoff spots of their own. On that point, the other part of the reports I check are the offensive line- a weakened line creates opportunities for sacks, picks, and turnovers. Additionally, once you think you have a solid defense selected, go to their matchup’s defense and check those injuries. How long will your D/ST be on the field? Are they going to get tired?
Check the Weather
Snow lowers the score. Is your defensive match up in New York? Minnesota? Green Bay? Then start checking the weather now- snow is coming, and snow will affect the outcome of your game. Did anybody else watch the Bills-Colts game last year? Me neither, but only three touchdowns were scored the entire game. Check for those snowstorms and add your defenses accordingly. To a lesser extent, the same thing can be said for rainstorms- harsh weather affects offenses and a ball is much harder to catch when it’s soaking wet. Teams like Seattle are used to playing in adverse weather, and a light rain isn’t going to slow many teams down, but a heavy rainstorm is something that will limit scoring opportunities. Don’t be fooled by wind conditions, though- anything under 10 mph won’t largely affect the game, and most weather channels don’t predict wind speeds more than three days out.
Check Social Media
Times, they have a-changed: social media is a breaking news source. This could go for any position in your lineup, but it applies to the defense just the same. The majority of the time, I find breaking news on Twitter well before I find it on ESPN, Bleacher Report, or any other site. Who in my league found out about Dez’s signing first? Me. Who also found out about his season-ending injury first? Me. Find a few reporters or sites that you trust, follow them on Twitter, and turn your notifications on for their tweets. Nine times out of ten, it’ll be an annoyance- but that tenth time, you’ll hear about an injury or trade first, and you’ll be able to add (or drop) the right defense before anyone in your league even knows it happened. Personally, I find that Sleeperbot is the best fantasy sports app to get breaking news before any of my league-mates (and this is neither a plug nor a sponsored ad from them, though I’m flattered you think I’m famous enough for that). Download Sleeperbot, turn notifications on, and let the news come to you.
Now that I’ve explained how to do all of the work yourself, here are a few D/STs under 50% owned on ESPN whose match ups I like in the upcoming weeks:
1. Buffalo (45.3%) - The Bills defense faces off against the Jets week 14 and the Lions week 15, all from the comfort of their frigid stadium. Expect low scores and turnover opportunities.
2. Tennessee (49.6%) - The next three weeks look good for the Titans defense, playing the Jets this week, Jacksonville week 14, and travelling to play the Giants week 15.
3. New York Jets (16.9%) - This week’s match up against Tennessee can’t be ignored, and it’s followed up by an even nicer Bills match up week 14. The Jets also close out the regular season against Green Bay.
4. Atlanta (7%) - With a week 14 match up against an injured Green Bay in Wisconsin, it’s going to be cold. Aaron Rodgers has been getting sacked this season, largely due to the lack of functioning offensive line. Atlanta also faces Arizona at home week 15.
5. Cincinnati (20.5%) - the Bengals have a strong match up against Oakland week 15, and they close out their regular season in Cleveland.