Every fantasy season, I try to take my notes on strategy for the coming year. Yet, despite those best intentions, it becomes too easy to get caught up in the draft season hype and make those same mistakes. Here are some of my notes and reminders for 2019.... could you all remind me of this article again in August? ;)
Don’t draft rookie WRs
Rookie wide receivers take time to get adjusted into the offense and to gain trust from the coaches and their QB. 99% of the time, if you draft a later round rookie WR, you will drop them after a few weeks of very little production. By the time they actually produce, they are on the waivers, and you may find yourself spending FAAB on a guy you already drafted.
The exception to this in 2018 was Calvin Ridley. He exploded in week three with 7-146-3 before coming back down to reality and finishing with an overall average season. Later on, we saw names like DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, and Dante Pettis come on as viable streaming options, but they weren’t fool proof options as we had hoped. Hyped duds this season? DJ Chark, Antonio Callaway, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith, Anthony Miller. All had contributory efforts, but were unreliable enough that they were considered boom/bust at best.
Stick to the vets you know and love until you see those promising signs of production in your rookie wide receivers. Measure their involvement by tracking their offensive snap percentage. Track their targets per game. Watch their film - the eyeball test can speak wonders about their route running, perceived chemistry with the quarterback. Play the wait and see game and get those rookie wide receivers on the cheap, once they’re dropped by your impatient league mates.
Zero RB can work if you know how to play the waivers I tend to prefer to take a RB with my first round pick, particularly if I have an early or mid-first rounder. Those are the stud RBs who are the the workhorse backs of their team. However, if you decide to hold off on drafting your RB until the middle rounds, known as the Zero-RB strategy, it can work. The strategy is intended to allow fantasy owners to stack up on wide receivers, who are less injury prone and are intended to provide more long term value through the season.
When employing this strategy, it becomes critical to hit on your mid-rounders and be incredibly active on waivers. Guys that went late or undrafted in 2018: Conner, Lindsay, Chubb, Aaron Jones, Matt Breida, James White. Other league winners? Chris Carson, Elijah McGuire, Damien Williams, and CJ Anderson. Many who drafted early RBs (a la Bell, DJ, Freeman, Fournette, Cook, Howard, Drake, Collins… and yes, I’m counting Henry here, too) probably wish they would have replaced them with a stud wide receiver who might have provided more steady production.
Top 12 RBs on the season in half PPR:
Gurley McCaffrey Barkley Kamara Elliot Gordon Conner White Hunt DJ Mixon Lindsay
7 out of the 12 were 1st round picks, while Conner, White, and Lindsay went late or were undrafted. 1st round RBs tend to be safer, but once they’re off the board, there’s value in going wide receiver-heavy if you can play the cards right. Unfortunately, there will always be injuries that allow for backups to shine and you can grab them off waivers as the season goes on. You just have to snag them before your opponent does.
Draft a TE early or punt the position:
The 3 tight ends that went early in every draft this season were Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz. 2 of those guys ended up being great picks. You can’t blame anyone who spent an early draft pick on Gronk, as he has historically been a stud at the position and he came into the season looking to be Brady’s only viable target. To follow, in rounds 4 through 10, came names like Graham, Olsen, Engram, Rudolph, Burton, Njoku, Doyle… Need I go on? You probably weren’t satisfied with their production on a consistent basis, or worse - your guy suffered a season ending injury. Your best bet this season was to scour the waivers and play the match ups. Some late-round (or undrafted) guys who outplayed the others? George Kittle, Jared Cook, Eric Ebron, OJ Howard.
Next year, I either plan to spend a higher draft pick on Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz, or I am completely punting the position until later rounds of the draft. Knowing how volatile the position has been, I would rather take a dart throw on a TE, see if I hit, and have the option to stream based on the match ups if they don’t produce. A combination of Hooper, McDonald, Herndon, Ian Thomas, and Brate in right match ups were probably enough to at least match your opponent’s TE production and it came at a much lower cost.
Unless they are expected to be week in and week out studs, there is no need to waste a mid round draft pick on a TE, especially in today’s fantasy landscape.
Streaming defenses - playing match ups will win you weeks:
People picked the Jaguars far too early because of their league winning 2017 fantasy season. Unfortunately, the Jaguars disappointed many people who decided to waste a 10th-13th round pick on them, as did Philly. Most defenses were volatile, matchup dependent, and laid up some major stinkers (negative points, perhaps) that could have cost you a week.
Chicago grossly outscored other fantasy defenses by a 50 point margin, but with any other defense, it was a more viable and effective option to stream against low scoring and turn-over prone offenses (Ahhh, the Cardinals). It should also be noted that Chicago was, on average, the 10th defense off the board. They were a tremendous value through 2018 - which means that they will likely be drafted early next season and will have a higher price tag than I prefer to pay.
Come 2019 draft season, I still prefer to scout those defenses with opponents in situations that might cause an offense to sputter in the first 1-4 weeks: those with new coordinators or coaching staff in an adjustment period, QBs in a new system, lame duck offenses who didn’t make many changes in the off season. If you’re sensing a theme here - you’re right. Skill position depth. Is. Key.
There is no need to draft a QB before round 8 Rodgers, Watson, Brady, Wilson, Newton, Brees, Wentz, Cousins all went before round 9 in 2018. They were solid performers for segments of the season, though most went through droughts, and some completely disappointed based on their draft stock (Brady, Wentz).
The issue with drafting a QB early is that you’re stuck starting them through all match ups - good and bad, despite the low production. The draft capital you spend on an early round QB makes it difficult to sit them for someone with more consistent production or a better match up. For instance, Aaron Rodgers ranked as the QB10 weeks 1-14 despite being drafted for most as the first quarterback off the board. He finished his season as the QB4 thanks to a monstrous week 16 performance, but for many, his production came too late. Starting him week in and week out may have kept you out of that week 16 championship game.
Players like Mahomes, Big Ben, Luck, Ryan, Rivers, Goff (all of who were drafted after the 8th round) had either better or more consistent seasons than those early round QBs. Streaming is also a viable option with guys like Trubisky, Prescott, Mayfield, Jackson, and Allen providing QB1 production in plus matchups. I’m not advocating to punt the position, like you can with a kicker, TE, or defense, but the value picks in the late rounds allow for you to load up on wide receiver and running back depth that your league mates might not take the chance on. Bonus: Please remember that kickers are completely random DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT draft a kicker before the very last round of your draft. Don’t draft one at all, if your league allows that. Better yet, vote them out of your league entirely. Some late round or undrafted kickers who ended up in the top 10 this season? Fairbairn, Myers, Maher, Rosas, Parkey, Janikowski.
People tend to think that if they draft a kicker early with name value like Justin Tucker, Greg Zuerlein, or Gostkowski that they will have an advantage over the league. While it’s certainly best to have a reliable kicker, place kicking is situational and kicker usage is variable week to week. Take your kicker in the last round while your league mates draft them in the 12th or 13th, and again, you’re at an advantage with skill position depth going into the season.